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By 2035, automakers would stop selling new gasoline- or diesel-fueled passenger vehicles. Nations would also stop approving the development of new oil and gas fields beyond those already committed.īy 2025, governments worldwide would start banning the sale of new oil and gas furnaces to heat buildings, shifting instead to cleaner electric heat pumps.īy 2030, electric vehicles would make up 60 percent of new car sales globally, up from just 5 percent today. This year, nations would stop approving new coal plants unless they are outfitted with carbon capture technology to trap and bury their emissions underground. The agency sketched out one potential timetable: If the world’s governments want to change course quickly, the International Energy Agency has essentially offered a step-by-step guide for how they might do so. A report by the Environmental Protection Agency published last week found that in the United States, wildfires are now starting earlier in the year, heat waves are more frequent and flooding is more common. The unevenness in global action comes even as scientists warn that the damages from rising temperatures are already reverberating around the globe. Any emissions that could not be fully erased would be offset, such as by forests or artificial technologies that can pull carbon dioxide directly out of the atmosphere. Instead, they would need to sharply reduce most of the carbon dioxide generated by power plants, factories and vehicles. Net zero emissions doesn’t mean countries would stop emitting carbon dioxide altogether. “The sheer magnitude of changes needed to get to net zero emissions by 2050 is still not fully understood by many governments and investors,” Fatih Birol, the agency’s executive director, said in an interview. But many world leaders have not yet come to grips with the extraordinary transformation of the global energy system that is required to do so, the agency warned.
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Several major economies, including the United States and the European Union, have recently pledged to zero out their emissions responsible for global warming by midcentury. “It’s a huge shift in messaging if they’re saying there’s no need to invest in new fossil fuel supply,” said Kelly Trout, senior research analyst at Oil Change International, an environmental advocacy group. Formed after the oil crises of the 1970s, the agency’s reports and forecasts are frequently cited by energy companies and investors as a basis for long-term planning. That’s significant, given the fact that the influential agency is not an environmental group but an international organization that advises world capitals on energy policy.